Global value chains for the Belt and Road countries: Two-thirds of CO2 emissions while one-third of the value added

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, comprising of the most dynamic emerging area of global CO2 emissions as well economic growth, play growing roles in the Global Value Chains (GVCs). We provide an in-depth understanding of how participation in GVCs affects CO2 emissions and economic gains in BRI countries by integrating GVCs theory with Environmental Expanded Input-output model. Results show that BRI countries were trapped into emissions-income dilemma with 2/3 of GVCs' CO2 emissions but only 1/3 of value added. 2/3 of BRI GVCs' CO2 emissions and value added were exported to developing countries, but the GVCs-related CO2 intensities between BRI countries and developing countries were 20 similar to 30 % higher than developed countries. The inadequate domestic industrial transformation is responsible for the negative decoupling of emissions and income in the major BRI emitters. The fragile Emissions-Income balance calls for a global cohesive cooperation framework for the low-carbon GVCs under BRI.