COVID-19 Pandemic's Impact on HIV and AIDS Case Reporting in Peru: A Time Series Analysis of Surveillance Data (1983-2023)

The COVID-19 pandemic substantially disrupted healthcare services worldwide, and its impact on the identification and reporting of HIV and AIDS cases has become a critical concern. This study evaluated the effects of the pandemic on HIV/AIDS surveillance in Peru through a natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis of national surveillance data. Analysis of trends from 1985 to 2023 for HIV and from 1983 to 2023 for AIDS revealed consistent pre-pandemic increases, with an average annual growth of 27.02% for HIV cases and 20.48% for AIDS cases. However, the onset of the pandemic in 2020 was associated with significant immediate declines, with reductions of 1,609.86 HIV cases (95% CI: -3,147.26 to - 72.46) and 1,187.68 AIDS cases (95% CI: -1,560.10 to - 815.26). Furthermore, comparisons against ARIMA forecasts (HIV accuracy = 84.80%, AIDS accuracy = 85.45%) indicated substantial underreporting during the 2020-2023 period-estimated at 15.77% for HIV and 29.03% for AIDS cases. These results underscore the adverse effect of the COVID-19 crisis on ongoing HIV/AIDS case detection and reporting in Peru. They also highlight the urgent need for robust strategies-such as expanding telemedicine, enhancing self-testing, and reinforcing community-based interventions-to ensure continuous access to diagnosis and treatment during public health emergencies. La pandemia de COVID-19 interrumpi & oacute; sustancialmente los servicios de salud en todo el mundo, y su impacto en la identificaci & oacute;n y notificaci & oacute;n de casos de VIH y SIDA se ha convertido en una preocupaci & oacute;n cr & iacute;tica. Este estudio evalu & oacute; los efectos de la pandemia en la vigilancia del VIH/SIDA en Per & uacute; mediante un experimento natural utilizando an & aacute;lisis de series temporales interrumpidas de datos de vigilancia nacional. El an & aacute;lisis de tendencias desde 1985 hasta 2023 para VIH y desde 1983 hasta 2023 para SIDA revel & oacute; aumentos consistentes previos a la pandemia, con un crecimiento anual promedio del 27.02% para los casos de VIH y del 20.48% para los casos de SIDA. Sin embargo, el inicio de la pandemia en 2020 se asoci & oacute; con disminuciones inmediatas significativas, con reducciones de 1,609.86 casos de VIH (IC del 95%: -3,147.26 a - 72.46) y 1,187.68 casos de SIDA (IC del 95%: -1,560.10 a - 815.26). Adem & aacute;s, las comparaciones con las previsiones ARIMA (precisi & oacute;n VIH = 84.80%, precisi & oacute;n SIDA = 85.45%) indicaron una subnotificaci & oacute;n sustancial durante el per & iacute;odo 2020-2023, estimada en un 15.77% para los casos de VIH y un 29.03% para los casos de SIDA. Estos resultados subrayan el efecto adverso de la crisis de COVID-19 en la detecci & oacute;n y notificaci & oacute;n de casos de VIH/SIDA en Per & uacute;. Tambi & eacute;n destacan la urgente necesidad de estrategias robustas, como la expansi & oacute;n de la telemedicina, el fortalecimiento de la autoprueba y el refuerzo de intervenciones comunitarias, para garantizar el acceso continuo al diagn & oacute;stico y tratamiento durante emergencias de salud p & uacute;blica.