Global esophageal cancer epidemiology in 2022 and predictions for 2050: A comprehensive analysis and projections based on GLOBOCAN data

被引：1

作者：

Qi, Ling ^{[1
]}

Sun, Mengfei ^{[2
]}

Liu, Weixin ^{[3
]}

Zhang, Xuefeng ^{[3
]}

Yu, Yongjun ^{[4
,5
]}

Tian, Ziqiang ^{[6
]}

Ni, Zhiyu ^{[7
,8
,9
]}

Zheng, Rongshou ^{[10
]}

Li, Yong ^{[3
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Med Sci & Peking Union Med Coll, Dept Oncol, Natl Canc Ctr, Natl Clin Res Ctr Canc,Canc Hosp, Beijing 100021, Peoples R China

[2] Inner Mongolia Med Univ, Coll Pharm, Hohhot 010110, Peoples R China

[3] Chinese Acad Med Sci & Peking Union Med Coll, Canc Hosp, Dept Thorac Surg, Natl Canc Ctr,Natl Clin Res Ctr Canc, Beijing 100021, Peoples R China

[4] Inner Mongolia Med Univ, Dept Thorac Surg, Hohhot 010110, Peoples R China

[5] Second Hosp Chifeng, Dept Cardio Thorac Surg, Chifeng 024099, Peoples R China

[6] Hebei Med Univ, Dept Thorac Surg, Hosp 4, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China

[7] Hebei Univ, Hebei Collaborat Innovat Ctr Tumor Microecol Metab, Cent Lab, Affiliated Hosp, Baoding 071000, Hebei, Peoples R China

[8] Hebei Univ Engn, Med Coll, Handan 056038, Hebei, Peoples R China

[9] Hebei Engn Univ, Affiliated Hosp, Handan 056002, Hebei, Peoples R China

[10] Chinese Acad Med Sci & Peking Union Med Coll, Canc Hosp, Natl Canc Ctr, Natl Cent Canc Registry,Natl Clin Res Ctr Canc, Beijing 100021, Peoples R China

来源：

CHINESE MEDICAL JOURNAL | 2024年 / 137卷 / 24期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金; 北京市自然科学基金;

关键词：

Esophageal cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Projection; Disease burden; SQUAMOUS-CELL CARCINOMA; RISK; ADENOCARCINOMA; POPULATION; BURDEN; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1097/CM9.0000000000003420

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Background:The burden of esophageal cancer varies across different regions of the world. The aim of this study is to analyze the current burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2022 and to project the trends up to the year 2050.Methods:We extracted data on primary esophageal cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, which includes data from 185 countries. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years were calculated by stratifying by Human Development Index (HDI) levels and regions. Considering changes in population size and age structure, we assumed that the risks of incidence and mortality remain constant at the levels of 2022 to forecast the number of new cases and deaths from esophageal cancer globally by 2050.Results:In 2022, an estimated 511,054 people were diagnosed with esophageal cancer globally, and 445,391 died from the disease. The global ASIR and ASMR for esophageal cancer were 5.00 and 4.30 per 100,000, respectively. The highest rates were observed in East Africa (7.60 for incidence, 7.20 for mortality per 100,000), East Asia (7.60 for incidence, 5.90 for mortality per 100,000), Southern Africa (6.30 for incidence, 5.90 for mortality per 100,000), and South Central Asia (5.80 for incidence, 5.50 for mortality per 100,000). Among the 185 countries worldwide, esophageal cancer was among the top five causes of cancer incidence in 18 countries and among the top five causes of cancer mortality in 25 countries. In 2022, China had 224,012 new cases and 187,467 deaths from esophageal cancer, accounting for approximately 43.8% and 42.1% of the global total, respectively, which is higher than the proportion of China's population to the global population (17.9%). ASIR was 8.30 per 100,000, and ASMR was 6.70 per 100,000. The highest burden of esophageal cancer was in high HDI countries, with new cases and deaths accounting for 51.3% and 50.0% of the global total, respectively. The ASIR and ASMR were highest in the high HDI group (6.10 and 5.10 per 100,000, respectively), also exceeding the global averages. There was a trend of decreasing mortality to incidence ratio with increasing HDI, but no correlation was observed between HDI and ASIR or ASMR. In all regions worldwide, the incidence and mortality rates were higher in males than in females (with a male-to-female ASR ratio ranging from 1.10 to 28.7). Compared to 2022, it is projected that by 2050, the number of new esophageal cancer cases will increase by approximately 80.5%, and deaths will increase by 85.4% due to population growth and aging.Conclusions:The burden of esophageal cancer remains heavy. Adopting a healthy lifestyle, including reducing tobacco and alcohol intake, avoiding moldy foods, and increasing intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, can help reduce the risk of stomach and esophageal cancer. In addition, the development and implementation of evidence-based and effective public health policies are critical to reducing the global disease burden of esophageal cancer.

引用

页码：3108 / 3116

页数：9

共 45 条

[1] Cao W., Qin K., Li F., Chen W., Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality: An analysis of GLOBOCAN 2022, Chin Med J, 137, pp. 1407-1413, (2024)
[2] Allemani C., Matsuda T., Di Carlo V., Harewood R., Matz M., Niksic M., Et al., Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): Analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries, Lancet, 391, pp. 1023-1075, (2018)
[3] Arnold M., Soerjomataram I., Ferlay J., Forman D., Global incidence of oesophageal cancer by histological subtype in 2012, Gut, 64, pp. 381-387, (2015)
[4] Xie S.H., Fang R., Huang M., Dai J., Thrift A.P., Anderson L.A., Et al., Association between levels of sex hormones and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett’s esophagus, Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol, 18, (2020)
[5] Hvid-Jensen F., Pedersen L., Drewes A.M., Sorensen H.T., Funch-Jensen P., Incidence of adenocarcinoma among patients with Barrett’s esophagus, N Engl J Med, 365, pp. 1375-1383, (2011)
[6] Arnold M., Pandeya N., Byrnes G., Renehan P.A.G., Stevens G.A., Ezzati P.M., Et al., Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study, Lancet Oncol, 16, pp. 36-46, (2015)
[7] Conway E., Wu H., Tian L., Overview of risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China, Cancers (Basel), 15, (2023)
[8] Rumgay H., Arnold M., Laversanne M., Whiteman D.C., Thrift A.P., Wei W., Et al., International trends in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma incidence, Am J Gastroenterol, 116, pp. 1072-1076, (2021)
[9] Ng C.S., Ong X.J., Au M., Lau Y.H., Kwok H.H.Y., Quan J., ALDH2 polymorphism, alcohol intake and the attributable burden of cancer in East Asia: Systematic review, meta-analysis, and modeling study, Ann Epidemiol, 85, (2023)
[10] Simba H., Kuivaniemi H., Abnet C.C., Tromp G., Sewram V., Environmental and life-style risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis, BMC Public Health, 23, (2023)

← 1 2 3 4 5 →