Quantitative Rockfall Hazard Assessment of the Norwegian Road Network and Residences at an Indicative Level from Simulated Trajectories

Field observations provide valuable information for rockfall assessments, but estimating physical and statistical quantities related to rockfall propagation directly is challenging. Simulations are commonly used to infer these quantities, but their subjectivity can result in varying hazard land use zonation extents for different projects. This paper focuses on the application of simulated trajectories for rockfall hazard assessments, with an emphasis on reducing subjectivity. A quantitative guiding rockfall hazard methodology based on earlier concepts is presented and put in the context of legislated requirements. It details how the temporal hazard component, related to the likelihood of failure, can be distributed spatially using simulated trajectories. The method can be applied with results from any process-based software and combined with various prediction methods of the temporal aspect, although this aspect is not the primary focus. Applied examples for static objects and moving objects, such as houses and vehicles, are shown to illustrate the important effect of the object size. For that purpose, the methodology was applied at an indicative level over Norway utilizing its 1 m detailed digital terrain model (DTM) acquired from airborne LiDAR. Potential rockfall sources were distributed in 3D where slopes are steeper than 50 degrees, as most rockfall events in the national landslide database (NSDB) occurred in such areas. This threshold considerably shifts toward gentler slopes when repeating the analysis with coarser DTMs. Simulated trajectories were produced with an adapted version of the simulation model stnParabel. Comparing the number of trajectories reaching the road network to the numerous related registered rockfall events of the NSDB, an indicative averaged yearly frequency of released rock fragments of 1/25 per 10,000 m2 of cliff was obtained for Norway. This average frequency can serve as a starting point for hazard assessments and should be adjusted to better match local conditions.