Risk Evaluation and Early Warning Study on Supply of Critical Minerals for China's Chip Industry

In recent years, resilience of the supply chain in the chip industry has become the focus of social attention. This paper examines global developments and conducts a supply risk assessment and early-warning analysis of critical minerals for China's chip industry. Specifically, a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis method is applied to dynamically assess the supply risk for four critical minerals, including gallium, germanium, arsenic and silicon, over the period of 2010-2021. On this basis, the availability risk of different mineral resources is studied and explored. Furthermore, an improved gray prediction model is used to evaluate future trends in supply security and provide risk warnings for these minerals. The results show that: (1) while the overall supply risk of critical minerals for China's chip industry is low, certain vulnerabilities remain; (2) market risk and geopolitics are the main factors affecting the security level of supplying critical minerals for China's chip industry; (3) the supply risk for critical minerals in China's chip industry is expected to remain relatively stable over the next three years. Based on the above research, the article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.