UPGRADE score: a new scoring system in predicting pathological upgrading after prostatectomy in patients with Gleason grade group 1 prostate cancer

Pathological upgrading poses a significant challenge in treatment decision-making, particularly for patients considered for active surveillance (AS). This study aimed to devise a novel scoring system to predict the risk of upgrading in patients with biopsy Gleason grade group 1 prostate cancer. We conducted a retrospective review of 235 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy between February 2014 and June 2022. Data on patient age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, body mass index, clinical T-stage, prior biopsy history, Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PIRADS) score, time interval from biopsy to surgery, and pathological outcomes were collected. After a comprehensive review of the literature, multivariate analyses identified seven factors associated with upgrading in prostate cancer patients after radical prostatectomy: uninformative prior biopsy sample, PSA level, greatest percentage of tumor involvement, radiological PIRADS score, age, delay from biopsy to surgery and extension of positive cores. These factors were integrated into our devised U.P.G.R.A.D.E. model to form a scoring system. The U.P.G.R.A.D.E. score was calculated based on the cumulative score of these variables. The predictive performance of the U.P.G.R.A.D.E. scoring system was assessed, revealing a cohort with a mean age of 64.22 +/- 5.88 years and a mean PSA value of 8.92 +/- 5.05 ng/mL. The pathological samples of 95 patients (40.6%) were upgraded, and the upgraded patients exhibited significantly higher U.P.G.R.A.D.E. scores (p <0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the U.P.G.R.A.D.E. scoring system demonstrated robust predictive ability for upgrading (AUROC = 0.952; 95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.926-0.978; p < 0.001). In addition, a higher U.P.G.R.A.D.E. score was strongly associated with an increased risk of upgrading in biopsy Gleason grade group 1 patients, suggesting potential limitations for active surveillance eligibility in these individuals. Further validation studies are warranted to confirm these initial findings.