Bistability and Affect Shift Dynamics in the Prediction of Psychological Well-Being

How affective experiences, such as feelings, emotions, and moods, fluctuate over time is relevant for understanding and predicting psychological well-being. Here, we present a novel approach to investigate affect dynamics grounded on the concept of multistability, a common behavior of complex systems, characterized by abrupt shifts between two or more stable states. We analyze self-report measures in two ecological momentary assessment studies from Spain (N = 65) and Germany (N = 56). Participants were asked to rate how they feel on a single bipolar visual analogue scale ranging from very bad to very good, 6 times a day over the course of 29 days in the Spanish study and 5 times a day during 21 days in the German study. We observe bistable behavior in 61.5% of the Spanish and 46% of the German sample. Further, we introduce a range of metrics to quantify the frequency and magnitude of shifts between positive and negative affect and identify the positive to negative affect shift ratio as a robust predictor of psychological well-being. Our results suggest that affective bistability is a prevalent feature of affect dynamics and highlight the potential of positive to negative affect shift ratio as a valuable tool for predicting psychological well-being both in research and clinical settings.