Physically based probabilistic prediction of regional rainfall-induced shallow landslides: from initiation to runout analysis

被引:0
作者
Wu, Chen-guang [1 ]
Zhang, Jie [1 ]
Chen, Hong-xin [1 ]
Wang, Hua-an [2 ]
Lu, Da-gang [3 ]
机构
[1] Tongji Univ, Dept Geotech Engn, Key Lab Geotech & Underground Engn, Minist Educ, 239 Siping Rd, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China
[2] Guangdong Elect Power Design Inst Co Ltd, China Energy Engn Grp, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
[3] Harbin Inst Technol, Sch Civil Engn, Harbin, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Rainfall-induced landsides; runout analysis; intensity measure; exceedance probability; SLOPE FAILURE; DEBRIS FLOWS; MODEL; SUSCEPTIBILITY; HAZARD; PROVINCE;
D O I
10.1080/17499518.2024.2422481
中图分类号
P5 [地质学];
学科分类号
0709 ; 081803 ;
摘要
In this study, a physically based method is proposed to estimate the exceedance probability of the intensity measure of the regional rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This method consists of a digital elevation model, an initiation model, a runout model and a probabilistic analysis model. In the suggested method, a study area is discretised into a grid of cells, and the stability of each cell can be evaluated through the initiation model. Then, the runout behaviour of the unstable cells can be simulated by the runout model. Finally, the exceedance probability of the intensity measures of each cell can be estimated through Monte Carlo simulation considering the uncertainties in the initiation model and runout model. The proposed method is applied to analyse the rainfall-induced landslides in a study area in the southwest of China, which can provide a reasonably accurate prediction of the impact zones of the landslides. The suggested method provides a useful tool to probabilistically predict the impacted area of the rainfall-induced landslides at a regional scale.
引用
收藏
页数:14
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