GOLD COPD Exacerbation History Categories and Disease Outcomes

IMPORTANCE Previous exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) are associated with future events. For more than a decade, patients at high risk have been defined as individuals with a history of 2 or more moderate ECOPD, 1 or more severe ECOPD, or both within 12 months, and treatments have been allocated accordingly, but these cutoffs lack validation. OBJECTIVE To validate ECOPD history categories by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) and explore alternative cutoffs to estimate moderate and severe ECOPD and all-cause mortality in COPD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study analyzed data from patients with COPD in the German COPD and Systemic Consequences-Comorbidities Network (COSYCONET) study. Patients were recruited from September 2010 to December 2013. Analyses were conducted in September 2023 to August 2024. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Risk of moderate and severe (ie, with hospitalization) ECOPD and all-cause mortality over a 4.5-year follow-up period were assessed using binomial logistic regressions and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS Among 2291 patients with COPD GOLD categories 1 to 4 (mean [SD] age, 65 [8] years; 1396 male [60.9%]), the mean (SD) estimated forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration was 52.5% (18.6%). ECOPD history categories by GOLD had an AUROC of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.65) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58-0.66) to estimate moderate and severe ECOPD, respectively. A single previous moderate ECOPD within 12 months more accurately estimated future moderate and severe ECOPD (AUROC, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.69), and in line with GOLD, 1 previous severe ECOPD within 12 months estimated moderate and severe ECOPD (AUROC, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.60-0.67). The 4-year mortality rate was 219 patients (9.6%). Patients with 3 or more previous moderate ECOPD (odds ratio, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.27-3.72) or 1 or more previous severe ECOPD (odds ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.29-1.91) within 12 months were more likely to die compared with patients without prior ECOPD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study's findings suggest a limited estimative performance of ECOPD history categories by GOLD. Novel cutoffs were suggested, categorizing patients as without exacerbations or with high-risk exacerbations based on a history of 1 or more moderate ECOPD, 1 or more severe ECOPD, or both within 12 months.