Deforestation by production displacement: expansion of cropland and cattle ranching on Amazon Forest

Deforestation in the Amazon Forest has increased exponentially in recent years. This is a consequence of local, regional, and global dynamic economical processes changing land-use and land cover (LULC) in the Amazon Forest. There is evidence that land deforested to be used for pasture is now being used for crop production. In this circumstance, this paper analyzes the Amazon deforestation by agribusiness production displacement on the southeastern region of the Brazilian Amazon Forest. The investigated area is located in the north of the Brazilian State Mato Grosso. The data was collected from the MapBiomas project in a raster format, from 1985 to 2020, identifying 13 LULC classes, with forests, agriculture, and pasture being the most significant. The study employed map algebra to process spatial and temporal LULC changes, photointerpretation for visual validation, and correlation statistics to explore relationships between deforestation, pasture, agriculture, and fires. The results found a strong correlation (0.98) between deforestation and conversion of forest to pasture, and moderate correlation (0.59) between forest to crop conversion and deforestation. Over the last 20 years, 59,663.51 km2 of native forests were lost, primarily converted into pasture (17,047.27 km2) and agriculture (42,034.18 km2). Indigenous territories showed minimal deforestation compared to non-demarcated areas. A historical analysis of policies on deforestation in Brazil, and in the State of Mato Grosso, was carried out, demonstrating that in recent years there has been decreased control over the issue. This study provides insights for policymakers to leverage the global policy window for Amazon conservation under the Paris Agreement.