Coastal flood and damage assessment under sea level rise projections: a case study in San Francisco de Campeche, Mexico

The city of San Francisco de Campeche, located in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, is vulnerable to coastal flooding due to its geographical location and low altitude terrain. Under these inherent site conditions, sea level rise associated with climate change represents a potential threat to people's property and goods in the coming decades. In this work, three scenarios of sea level rise in the coastal area of the city of San Francisco de Campeche were evaluated through numerical simulation and using wave and wind data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis model as inputs: astronomical tide data and a high-resolution topobathymetric model. The scenarios evaluated correspond to the periods 2031-2050, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100 reported in the latest IPCC assessment report. Damage to people's property and goods was analyzed using the CENAPRED methodology based on the type of housing. The results allow identifying that the area of the old neighborhood of San Rom & aacute;n, Colonia Miramar, Pedro Sainz de Baranda, Adolfo Ruiz Cortinez, Resurgimiento avenues, and the Campeche-Merida and Campeche-Champoton coastal highway, as well as the federal and state government offices they will be the most affected areas by sea level rise with economic damages exceeding $13,860,322 Mexican pesos ($USD 805,832.67) under the 2031-2050 scenario, $14,706,754 Mexican pesos ($USD 855,043.83) in the 2046-2065 scenario and $22,536,250 Mexican pesos ($USD 1,310,247.09) in the 2081-2100 scenario; and the Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve as one of the ecological zones with the greatest extension of flooding; as well as downtown areas of the city that currently have residential, commercial, recreational, and port uses. Considering the three scenarios and effects on the population and housing, the 2081-2100 scenario is the one that generates the greatest flooding and with it a greater economic loss that exceeds 12 million dollars compared to the 2046-2050 scenario.