Modeling Land-Use Land-Cover Change Complexity: A System Dynamics Approach

Qualitative models help policymakers understand land-use changes by examining the processes involved and predicting future patterns. This study aims to use dynamic synthesis methodology to establish cause-and-effect relationships. The study, conducted in the Mt. Elgon region encompassing Mbale, Manafwa, Bududa, and Namisindwa districts, utilized questionnaires and interviews to gather data. Findings suggest that short-term solutions to reduce wood fuel consumption include raising awareness, promoting mindset change, and providing subsidies for alternative energy sources. Long-term strategies involve advocating for tree planting, strengthening land use policies, and ensuring strict implementation. While stakeholder engagement does not automatically guarantee high-quality decision analysis, it is crucial for promoting natural resource protection and fostering a sense of ownership over the issue.