Effective disc age: a statistical model for age-dependent and level-specific lumbar disc degeneration using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

被引:0
作者
Newman, Harrah R. [1 ]
Peloquin, John M. [1 ]
Meadows, Kyle D. [1 ]
Bodt, Barry A. [1 ]
Vresilovic, Edward J. [1 ]
Elliott, Dawn M. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 USA
基金
美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词
Intervertebral disc; Aging; Degeneration; MRI; SPINE;
D O I
10.1007/s00586-025-08729-9
中图分类号
R74 [神经病学与精神病学];
学科分类号
摘要
PurposeIntervertebral disc degeneration progresses with normal aging; yet common disc grading schemes do not account for age. Degeneration progression also varies between spine levels and is similarly not accounted for by current grading schemes. These limitations inhibit differentiation between discs with normal and expected aging (non-pathological) and discs with accelerated degeneration (which may be pathological). We sought to develop a statistical model to quantify normal age and spine level dependent disc degeneration.MethodsEighty-four asymptomatic adult subjects ranging evenly from 18 to 83 years old underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the lumbar spine. Subject traits, MRI-derived disc geometry, and MRI biomarkers of T2 relaxation time were evaluated and used to develop a statistical model to predict effective disc age, the age at which normal aging would produce a disc's observed phenotype.ResultsAfter evaluating several models, a 4-predictor model utilizing 1) subject height, 2) nucleus pulposus T2 relaxation time, 3) disc mid-sagittal area and 4) disc 3D volume, optimally estimated effective disc age. The effective age closely tracked true age for spine levels L1-L5 (R2 approximate to 0.7, RMSE approximate to 10 years) and moderately tracked true age for L5-S1 (R2 = 0.4, RMSE = 14 years). The uncertainty in the effective disc age prediction was +/- 3 years as assessed by fivefold cross validation.ConclusionWe offer a data-driven, quantitative tool to quantify normal, expected intervertebral disc aging. This effective age model allows future research to target discs with accelerated degeneration.
引用
收藏
页码:1697 / 1708
页数:12
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