Comprehensive assessment of China's hydrogen energy supply chain: Energy, environment, and economy

This paper develops a hydrogen energy supply chain model to systematically assess energy consumption, cost, and carbon emissions within a unified framework. The osculatory value method is employed for a comprehensive evaluation. The results indicate that: (1) Hydrogen Production: Under average energy prices, the production costs of gray, blue, and green hydrogen range from 1.37 to 4.37, 2.00-4.93, and 7.45-8.34 USD/kg H2, respectively. Their corresponding carbon emissions are 4.89-20.09, 4.54-8.20, and 1.45-3.04 kg CO2-eq/kg H2, while energy consumption is 44.02-72.49, 45.26-74.19, and 52.81 kWh/kg H2. Among these, coal-based hydrogen offers the lowest cost, ATR achieves the highest energy efficiency, and water electrolysis results in the lowest carbon emissions. A comprehensive analysis suggests that electrolysis-based hydrogen becomes costcompetitive only when electricity prices drop below 25 USD/MWh. (2) Conversion and Transportation: Across varying distances, the costs of truck transport, hydrogen blending in natural gas pipelines, and pure hydrogen pipelines range from 0.22 to 2.73, 0.12-0.38, and 0.059-1.069 USD/kg H2, respectively. Hydrogen blending in natural gas pipelines achieves the lowest carbon emissions, while pure hydrogen pipelines become the most costeffective solution for short-distance transport once infrastructure is fully developed. (3) Storage: Underground hydrogen storage in geological formations such as hard rock caverns, salt caverns, aquifers, and depleted oil fields proves to be the most cost-efficient option. (4) Sensitivity Analysis: Lowering energy prices and advancing technology to reduce capital costs are key strategies for reducing hydrogen production costs. Overall, the performance of hydrogen supply chains varies significantly under different conditions. Establishing a unified energyeconomic-environmental evaluation framework is essential for a holistic understanding of hydrogen supply chains and for facilitating hydrogen energy development.