Roles of sea ice and seasonal heat storage in determining the seasonal Arctic surface warming are studied with CMIP6 simulations

被引：0
作者：
Wenjun Wu [1 ]
Haijin Dai [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha
[2] Key Laboratory of High-Impact Weather (Special), China Meteorological Administration, Changsha
来源：
Scientific Reports | / 15卷 / 1期
基金：
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词：
D O I：
10.1038/s41598-025-96214-0
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In recent decades, Arctic surface warming has reached its maximum (minimum) during the cold season (summer) because of increased seasonal ocean heat storage (SHS) release (formation). Reanalysis data suggest that increased land ice melt dominates summer Arctic surface warming. The absence of land ice melt decreases Arctic surface warming in Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations. SHS formation/release in the Arctic mainly occurs in the upper layer of the ocean. The additional SHS release is completed mainly via enhanced vertical diffusion and dominates Arctic surface warming during cold seasons. Although the trigger of SHS release is that surface air becomes colder than the sea surface, sea ice exhibits a high correlation coefficient with Arctic surface warming during the cold season since SHS release is enhanced via the strengthening of vertical diffusion and air‒sea heat exchange. In the CMIP6 historical simulations, vertical diffusion and the mixed layer depth (MLD) greatly differ, although the MLD and SHS are highly correlated in most CMIP6 members. A greater MLD during the cold season suggests greater additional SHS release and a warmer Arctic surface, which in turn results in a warmer springtime Arctic surface and greater sea ice melt in the next year. As a result, a deeper MLD is more sensitive to climate change and results in overestimated future climate estimates. © The Author(s) 2025.
引用
收藏
相关论文
共 27 条
  • [1] Screen J.A., Simmonds I., The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, pp. 1334-1337, (2010)
  • [2] Serreze M.C., Francis J.A., The Arctic amplification debate, Clim. Change, 76, pp. 241-264, (2000)
  • [3] Goosse H., Kay H.E., Armour K.C., Bodas-Salcedo A., Chepfer H., Docquier D., Jonko A., Kushner P., Lecomte O., Massonnet F., Park H., Pithan F., Svensson G., Vancoppenolle M., Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions, Nat. Commun, 9, (2018)
  • [4] Stuecker M.F., Bitz C.M., Armour K.C., Proistosescu C., Kang S.M., Xie S.P., Kim D., Mcgregor S., Zhang W., Zhao S., Cai W., Dong Y., Jin F.F., Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, pp. 1076-1081, (2018)
  • [5] Perovich D.K., Grenfell T.C., Richter-Menge J.A., Light B., Tucker W.B., Eicken H., Thin and thinner: Sea ice mass balance measurements during SHEBA, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 108, (2003)
  • [6] Graversen R.G., Langen P.L., Maurttsen T., Polar amplification in CCSM4: Contributions from the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, J. Clim, 27, pp. 4433-4449, (2014)
  • [7] Cronin T.W., Dutta I., How well do we understand the Planck feedback?, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst, 15, (2023)
  • [8] Boeke R.C., Taylor P.C., Sejas S.A., On the nature of the Arctic’s positive lapse-rate feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett, 48, (2020)
  • [9] Pithan F., Mauritsen T., Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models, Nat. Geosci, 7, pp. 181-184, (2014)
  • [10] Myhre G., Shindell D., Breon F.-M., Collins W., Fuglestvedt J., Huang J., Koch D., Lamarque J.-F., Lee D., Mendoza B., Nakajima T., Robock A., Stephens G., Takemura T., Zhang H., Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to The Fifth Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (2013)
123