Climate-induced habitat shifts of farmed mussel species

Marine mussels are one of the most important sources of cultivated shellfish worldwide, particularly among middle- and low-income countries where they are a key food source for coastal communities. Climate Change is bound to have a large impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for the mussel species cultivated throughout the world. To examine these impacts on mussel aquaculture and global food security, we evaluated the distribution of suitable current and future habitats for the six more widely cultivated mussel species under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario using ecological niche modelling. Occurrence records were obtained from online databases and the literature. The models had a good performance in predicting the current distribution of the six study species. In future scenarios, suitable mussel habitats were projected to shift poleward, with gains at higher latitudes and losses at lower latitudes. By 2050, significant impacts were projected along the Mediterranean coast for Mytilus galloprovincialis, an important mariculture species in Europe, and in Southeast Asia for the tropical green mussel Perna viridis. Overall, our predictions suggested that range shifts could create opportunities to expand mussel farming to higher latitudes, yet loss of suitable habitat in historically productive growing areas could disrupt current mussel aquaculture regions, highlighting the need for immediate action. Therefore, achieving a more nuanced understanding of the spatial changes in the geographic distribution of suitable habitats should be the first step in increasing the adaptive capacity of the mussel aquaculture sector, and ensuring the future supply of this key source of aquafood.