Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

被引:6
作者
Handley, Kyle [1 ,2 ]
Kamal, Fariha [3 ]
Monarch, Ryan [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093 USA
[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] US Bur Census, Suitland, MD USA
[4] Syracuse Univ, Syracuse, NY USA
关键词
VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION; INTERMEDIATE INPUTS; GROWTH; TRADE;
D O I
10.1257/app.20210051
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent. ( JEL F13, F14, F23, L14)
引用
收藏
页码:208 / 238
页数:31
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