Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

被引：6

作者：

Handley, Kyle ^{[1
,2
]}

Kamal, Fariha ^{[3
]}

Monarch, Ryan ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] US Bur Census, Suitland, MD USA

[4] Syracuse Univ, Syracuse, NY USA

来源：

AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS | 2025年 / 17卷 / 01期

关键词：

VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION; INTERMEDIATE INPUTS; GROWTH; TRADE;

D O I：

10.1257/app.20210051

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent. ( JEL F13, F14, F23, L14)

引用

页码：208 / 238

页数：31

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