What shapes silvopastoralism in Mediterranean mid-mountain areas? Understanding factors, drivers, and dynamics using fuzzy cognitive mapping

Silvopastoral systems, integrating woody vegetation and livestock farming, are increasingly recognized as a sustainable land-use supporting biodiversity and ecosystem services provision in the Mediterranean. However, this traditional practice has declined in recent decades, mainly because of land abandonment and intensification processes. We investigated the relationships between the factors involved in the dynamics of silvopastoralism in two contrasting Spanish case studies in Mediterranean mid-mountain areas: Sierra de Guara Natural Park and Llu & ccedil;an & egrave;s region. Combining semi-structured interviews with researchers and participatory workshops with key stakeholders, we built a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) representing the shared perception of forest grazing in each region and implemented methodological improvements in FCM post-processing and analysis leading to an improved understanding of FCM outcomes. Results revealed that the dynamics of forest grazing are highly influenced by the socioeconomic attractiveness of the farming sector because it was a central factor in both case studies, whereas the importance of other factors such as farm abandonment in Guara and access to land in Llu & ccedil;an & egrave;s were site-specific. Climate change and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) were identified as the main external drivers undermining forest grazing in both sites while the incidence of other economic activities (i.e., tourism or other livestock production systems) relied on the context of each region. In contrast, technological innovations, including GPS collars and virtual fencing, along with the existence of infrastructures such as water points and active forest management, were identified to promote beneficial feedback loops for forest grazing. Although the current policy framework is failing in fostering silvopastoralism, a policy shift from direct payments to result-based schemes for biomass reduction and wildfire prevention tailored to each region's environmental constraints and potentials would lead to better outcomes for society as a whole.