Spatio-temporal evolution of compound hot and dry extremes synchronizations in Europe

被引:0
作者
Giaquinto, Domenico [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Di Capua, Giorgia [3 ,4 ]
Marzocchi, Warner [1 ,5 ]
Kurths, Juergen [1 ,2 ,3 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Scuola Super Meridionale, Modeling & Engn Risk & Complex, I-80138 Naples, Italy
[2] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Complex Sci, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
[3] Leibniz Assoc, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
[4] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Earth Syst Anal, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
[5] Univ Naples Federico II, Dipartimento Sci Terra Ambiente & Risorse, I-80138 Naples, Italy
[6] Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, D-10117 Berlin, Germany
关键词
Compound extreme climate events; Spatially compound hot and dry extremes; Evolving complex networks; Climate networks; Climate change; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; FALSE DISCOVERY RATE; COMPLEX NETWORKS; PRECIPITATION EVENTS; DROUGHT FREQUENCY; SUMMER; TEMPERATURE; CIRCULATION; WEATHER; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION;
D O I
10.1007/s00382-025-07626-7
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
The probability of incidence of compound extreme climate events is increasing due to human-induced climate change: in particular, there is high confidence that concurrent hot and dry extremes will become more frequent with increased global warming. In this context, Europe is no exception. Understanding the aggregated impact of synchronized compound hot and dry events at different locations is a pressing issue, especially when it comes to predicting these extremes. We use concepts and methods derived from network theory to highlight hotspot regions in Europe where these spatially compound extremes are increasing and analyse the atmospheric precursors driving these anomalous conditions. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and focusing on the summer and winter seasons of the period 1941-2020, we construct evolving networks constituted by 51 consecutive blocks, encoding the spatial synchronization structure of compound hot and dry events. Next, we highlight the regional and seasonal differences of compounds occurrences and synchronizations, unraveling the main changes in the graphs structure, identifying hotspot regions and, finally, describing the atmospheric conditions behind compound events. The increase of compounds frequency and spatial synchronizations do not always match: synchronizations increase in Southeastern Europe during winter and in some locations in Finland, north of Poland and the Baltic states in summer, although, in both cases, we do not detect a corresponding trend in compounds occurrences. Moreover, we show that most of the synchronizations evolution can be explained by atmospheric pressure dynamical changes, including NAO and SNAO intensity. This work brings out key aspects concerning the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of concurrent hot and dry events.
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页数:21
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