On The Edge of Competitive Authoritarianism

For the past decade, there has been a growing consensus that Indonesia's democracy is in decline, but there was also agreement that elections remained mostly free, fair and competitive. This article re-examines Indonesia's democratic trajectory in light of the 2024 elections and the presidential victory of Prabowo Subianto. We draw on the events of 2024 to show that there were clear and systematic attempts by President Joko Widodo and his allies to clear pathways to victory for political allies and thwart political opponents. These new attacks on fair electoral competition, we argue, have brought Indonesia to the edge of competitive authoritarianism, a system characterised by the coexistence of meaningful democratic institutions alongside serious incumbent abuse, yielding electoral competition that is real but unfair. We explain how and why Widodo brought Indonesia to this new political phase and reflect on what President Prabowo might do with the weak institutions he inherits.