The long-lasting shadow of terror and political conflict: Effects of the 2015-2016 national security events on Turkey's inbound tourism

被引：0

作者：

Alpaslan, Firuze ^{[1
]}

Firgo, Matthias ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Munich Univ Appl Sci, Dept Tourism, Schachenmeierstr 35, D-80636 Munich, Germany

[2] CARRI Ctr Appl Res Responsible Innovat, Munich, Germany

来源：

TOURISM ECONOMICS | 2025年

关键词：

security policy; synthetic control method; tourism; terrorism; Turkey; T & uuml; rkiye;

D O I：

10.1177/13548166251321868

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper examines the impact of the 2015-2016 national security events on inbound tourism in Turkey. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study reveals significant and persistent causal effects on tourism metrics: Between 2015 and 2019, international tourist arrivals were 36% lower, overnight stays 41% lower, and expenditures 18% lower, on average, than in a "synthetic" Turkey constructed as a counterfactual. Although increased security stabilization from 2018 onwards helped Turkey's tourism recover, tourism activities were still far below their counterfactuals even in 2019. This highlights a substantial negative long-term impact of severe security incidents on international tourism.

引用

页数：7