Long-Term Variability of Phytoplankton Primary Production in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea/Japan Sea Using Ocean Color Remote Sensing

In recent years, significant changes in environmental conditions and marine ecosystems have been observed in the East Sea/Japan Sea. This study investigates the long-term environmental dynamics and phytoplankton responses in the Ulleung Basin, situated in the southwestern East Sea/Japan Sea, utilizing satellite and in situ data from 2002 to 2021. Over this period, there was a noticeable increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (r = 0.5739, p < 0.01), accompanied by decreasing mixed layer depth (MLD) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration (r = -0.6193 and -0.6721, respectively; p < 0.01). Nutrient concentrations within the upper 50 m significantly declined for nitrate and phosphate. A reduction in the N:P ratio indicated a shift from phosphorus-limited to nitrogen-limited environment. Moreover, primary production (PP) demonstrated a decreasing trend (r = -0.5840, p < 0.01), coinciding with an increase in small phytoplankton contribution (r = 0.6399, p < 0.01). Rising SST potentially altered the water column's vertical structure, hindering nutrient entrainment from the deep ocean. Consequently, this nutrient limitation may increase small phytoplankton contribution, resulting in a decline in total PP. Under the IPCC's SSP5-8.5 scenario, small phytoplankton contribution in the Ulleung Basin is projected to rise by over 10%, resulting in a 29% average PP decrease by 2100. This suggests a diminishing energy supply to the food web in a warming ocean, impacting higher trophic levels and major fishery resources. These findings emphasize the critical need for understanding and monitoring these environmental shifts for effective fisheries management and marine ecosystem conservation.