Topography Dominates the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Soil Bulk Density in Typical Arid Zones

Soil bulk density is a crucial indicator for assessing soil matter storage and soil quality. Due to the complexity of sampling soil bulk density, particularly in deeper layers, it is essential to study the spatial distribution patterns of soil bulk density and their influencing factors. To address the gap in large-scale studies of vertical (from surface to deeper layers) and horizontal (across a broad area) variations in soil bulk density in arid regions, this study focuses on Changji Prefecture, located in the central northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and characterized by typical vertical zonation. By integrating classical statistics, geostatistics, and geographic information systems (GISs), this study investigates the spatial distribution patterns and driving factors of soil bulk density. The results indicate that soil bulk density in Changji Prefecture increases with soil depth, with significantly lower values in the surface layer than in deeper layers. Spatially, despite minimal variation in latitude, there is considerable elevation difference within the study area, with the lowest elevations in the central region. Soil bulk density exhibits a spatial distribution pattern of higher values in the northeast (desert areas) and lower values in the southwest (forest areas). The nugget effect in the surface layer (0-20 cm) is substantial at 44.9%, while the deeper layers (20-100 cm) show nugget effects below 25%, suggesting that the influence of both natural and anthropogenic factors on deep soil bulk density is limited and mainly affects the surface layer. Stepwise regression analysis indicates that among topographic factors, slope and elevation are the primary controls of spatial variability in soil bulk density across layers. This research demonstrates that, in arid regions, soil bulk density is influenced primarily by natural factors, with limited impact from human activities. These findings provide valuable data support and theoretical guidance for soil management, agricultural planning, and sustainable ecosystem development in arid regions.