Evaluating climate-induced changes in the suitable distribution and ecological niche of Prunus mira Koehne using ensemble modeling and high-performance liquid chromatography analysis

被引：0

作者：

Zhang, Shuning ^{[1
,4
]}

Gao, Minglong ^{[1
]}

Chen, Junxing ^{[1
]}

Dun, Ao ^{[2
]}

Wang, Lin ^{[3
]}

Tana, Wuyun ^{[3
]}

Bai, Yu-e ^{[1
]}

Bao, Wenquan ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Inner Mongolia Agr Univ, Coll Forestry, Hohhot 010019, Peoples R China

[2] Inner Mongolia Agr Univ, Coll Grassland Resources & Environm, Hohhot 010019, Peoples R China

[3] Chinese Acad Forestry, Econ Forest Res Inst, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China

[4] Northeast Forestry Univ, Coll Forestry, Key Lab Sustainable Forest Ecosyst Management, Minist Educ, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China

来源：

ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS | 2025年 / 87卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Prunus mira Koehne; Biomod2; Climate change; Potential distribution; Niche change; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; PHYTOPHTHORA-CINNAMOMI; PREDICTION; STABILITY; PATTERN; AREAS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103071

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Prunus mira Koehne, is an economically and ecologically important woody oilseed tree species in China, but currently, it is facing great challenges from climate change and human activities, impacting its distribution area and, consequently, its growth and seed quality. Therefore, it is important to investigate the spatial distribution of P. mira and changes in seed kernel oil quality with respect to climate change for the conservation and utilization of this species. This study explored the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution, ecological niches, and seed oil quality of P. mira. Based on the Biomod2 platform and ensemble modeling, 10 species distribution model groups were incorporated to simulate potential distribution areas. High-performance liquid chromatography was used to analyze the oil composition of P. mira seeds. The results revealed that the current potential distribution area in China primarily comprises high-altitude regions of the Tibetan and Yunnan- Guizhou Plateaus. Future climate projections suggest limited migration of suitable areas for P. mira, which initially decrease before experiencing an increase in the distribution area. Furthermore, variations in P. mira seed oil characteristics were aligned with climate-induced changes, with seeds from more habitable regions producing improved oil qualities.

引用

页数：10