Taking aim at crime: evaluating evidence in a crime gun intelligence approach

Identifying effective strategies to combat firearm-related crimes is a growing priority in the United States. The crime gun intelligence (CGI) framework, centered on evidence-based approaches, is a key approach to accomplish this. This article explores the relative contributions of various evidence types to case clearance. We examine gun-related crimes investigated by the Manchester Police Department (MPD) in New Hampshire from 2017 to 2022 to see how the use of NIBIN, e-Trace, firearm recovery, physical evidence, social media, and video evidence impacted the likelihood of arrest. Results suggest that recovering firearms and having video evidence are key elements for increasing the likelihood of an arrest. CGI-related evidence and other evidence types were typically predicted to have no significant effects. NIBIN and physical evidence were associated with negative effects on arrest in some instances. The practical implications of these findings, as well as their limitations and directions for future research, will also be discussed.