Quantifying the sources and health risks of groundwater nitrate via dual N-O isotopes and Monte Carlo simulations in a developed planting-breeding area

Nitrate (NO 3 ) pollution in groundwater is a worldwide environmental issue, particularly in developed plantingbreeding areas where there is a substantial presence of nitrogen-related sources. Here, we explored the key sources and potential health risks of NO 3 in a typical planting-breeding area in the North China Plain based on dual stable isotopes and Monte Carlo simulations. The analysis results revealed that the NO 3 concentration ranged from 0.02 to 44.6 mg/L, with a mean value of 7.54 mg/L, along with a significant spatial variability. Analysis by combining stable isotopes (delta 15N-NO 3 and delta 18O-NO 3 ) with the Bayesian isotope mixing model (MixSIAR) revealed that soil N (60.3 %) and manure and sewage (35.9 %) contributed the most NO 3 in groundwater, followed by chemical N fertilizer (2.9 %) and atmospheric N deposition (0.8 %). However, the contribution of N fertilizer may be underestimated because it has undergone a long-term applied history and have progressively accumulated in the soil, and then promoted the entry of groundwater under frequent rainfall and irrigation practices. From the probabilistic health risk assessment, a relatively low probability of exceeding the threshold (HI=1) was observed (0.2 % for adults and 2.59 % for children); nevertheless, children still face some nonnegligible risk, particularly for the oral ingestion of drinking water at high-pollution sites. Therefore, we highlight the importance of effective management of manure and sewage from breeding plants and reduction of chemical N fertilizer usage are suggested in developed agricultural areas.