A multiscale geographically weighted regression analysis of teenage pregnancy and associated factors among adolescents aged 15 to 19 in Ethiopia using the 2019 mini-demographic and health survey

Background Teenage pregnancy remains one of the major reproductive health problems, especially in sub-Saharan African countries. It can lead to maternal and neonatal complications and social consequences. The proportion of teenage pregnancy differs across regions of Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to determine the spatial variation in determinants of teenage pregnancy among adolescents aged 15-19 years in Ethiopia using the 2019 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).Methods This study included a total weighted sample of 2165 teenage girls aged 15 to 19 years. A mixed-effect binary logistic regression model was employed to consider the hierarchical nature of the DHS data using STATA version 17. Adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals are reported, and a p-value less than 0.05 was used to identify significant predictors. The spatial analysis was conducted with ArcGIS version 10.7 and Python 3. To identify factors associated with the hotspots of teenage pregnancy, a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was performed. Spatial regression models were compared using adjusted R2, the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc), and the residual sum of squares (RSS).Results The prevalence of teenage pregnancy among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years was 12.98% (95% CI: 11.6%, 14.5%). It was spatially clustered throughout the country with a significant Moran's I value. Significant hotspot areas were detected in central and southern Afar; northern, central, and western Gambela; northeastern and southern central Oromia; and the eastern Somali region. The MGWR analysis revealed that the significant predictors of spatial variations in teenage pregnancy were being illiterate and being married. Based on the multivariable multilevel analysis, age 17 (AOR = 3.54; 95% CI: 1.60, 7.81), 18 (AOR = 8.21; 95% CI: 3.96, 17.0), 19 (AOR = 15.0; 95% CI: 6.84, 32.9), being literate (AOR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.35, 0.92), being married (AOR = 22.8; 95% CI: 14.1, 37.0), age of household head (AOR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.98, 0.99) and residing in the Gambela region (AOR = 3.27; 95% CI: 1.21, 8.86) were significantly associated with teenage pregnancy among adolescents aged 15 to 19.Conclusion Teenage pregnancy is a public health problem in Ethiopia. Policymakers should prioritize addressing early marriage and improving teenage literacy rates, with a focus on the Gambela region and other hotspot areas. It is crucial to implement policies aimed at transforming the traditional practice of early marriage and to take measures to enhance literacy levels and promote awareness about sexual and reproductive health at the family and school levels. This will help ensure that young people have the opportunity to pursue education and make informed decisions about their reproductive health.