The role of substrate characteristics and temperature for potential non-native plant establishment in Maritime Antarctic ecosystems

Polar ecosystems are threatened by non-native plants, and this risk will increase with climate warming. Non-native plant growth depends on Antarctic environmental conditions and substrates, but these influences are poorly quantified. Under laboratory conditions we quantified the growth of Holcus lanatus, Trifolium repens and Taraxacum officinale across nine sub-Antarctic and Maritime Antarctic substrates with varying characteristics. This included, among others, variation in carbon (0.2-27.0%), nitrogen (0.03-2.1%) and phosphorus (0.04-0.54%) contents, under simulated Antarctic conditions (2 degrees C) and a warming scenario. Legacy effects from an established non-native chironomid midge (Eretmoptera murphyi) and non-native grasses were included. H. lanatus and T. repens grew best in organic- and nutrient-rich substrates, while T. officinale growth was poorly correlated with substrate characteristics. Warming increased plant size by one to three times, but inconsistently across species and substrates, suggesting that climate change impacts on plant growth will vary across the Maritime Antarctic. A variable response was also observed in the legacy effects of E. murphyi, while non-native grasses increased H. lanatus and T. repens plant size, but not that of T. officinale. Plant growth was positively correlated with substrate organic and phosphorus content, and this information was used to trial a novel approach to identifying sites 'at risk' from plant invasions in the Maritime Antarctic.