Best Practices in Scenario Planning and Mapping for Salmon Recovery in the Columbia River Basin

Salmon recovery planning in the Columbia River Basin depends upon what we argue are best practices of scenario planning in social-ecological systems. We examine how resilience science informs the concepts of stability landscapes and scenario mapping, and how this fits into the current state of salmonid recovery planning. We analyze proposed "scenarios" and "perspectives" that reflect the current state of the U.S. federal planning process for salmonid recovery. We argue that only proposed "scenarios" that adhere to best practices, employ the resilience perspective, and adopt holistic social-ecological thought can be mapped onto a stability landscape. We demonstrate how such scenarios have the potential to increase insight into the viability of proposed recovery actions and avoid self-contradictory efforts stemming from a failure to see the basin-wide social-ecological system as a whole. We discuss and illustrate the potential of employing backcasting and post-normal science in terms of indigenous perspectives on salmon recovery.