Spatiotemporal Coupling of New-Type Urbanization and Ecosystem Services in the Huaihe River Basin, China: Heterogeneity and Regulatory Strategy

Strengthening the exploration of synergistic promotion mechanisms between ecosystem services (ESs) and new urbanization is of great significance for watershed development. In this work, we revealed the evolution mechanism of coupling coordination development degree (CCD) between ESs and new urbanization and its driving factors in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) from 1980 to 2020 using a combination of the CCD model, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method, and GeoDetector model. Additionally, we employed the PLUS model to investigate multi-scenario simulations. The results demonstrate that ESs showed a decline initially, followed by an increase, while the urbanization index showed consistent annual growth over the four decades. Furthermore, the CCD between the ESs and urbanization showed a yearly optimization trend. The CCD demonstrated notable spatial clustering characteristics, with factors such as precipitation, distance from water body, elevation, and per area GDP emerged as the primary drivers. Under scenarios of ecological protection, comprehensive development, and natural protection, the value of ESs from 2020 to 2050 maintained an upward trend; however, it fell with the decrease under the scenario of cropland protection. These research findings offer valuable decision-making support for the differentiated regulation of ecosystem functions and promotion of high-quality urbanization development in the HRB.