Social Health Insurance for Universal Health Coverage in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs): a retrospective policy analysis of attainments, setbacks and equity implications of Kenya's social health insurance model

Objectives To analyse the potential of the Social Health Insurance (SHI) model to support the achievement of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) through a policy analysis case study of Kenya's National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF).Design We used an adaptation of the policy triangle framework to perform a retrospective policy analysis of Kenya's NHIF, drawing from semistructured interviews and analysis of published documents and grey literature.Setting We focused on Kenya's NHIF as a case study.Participants We conducted 21 interviews with key stakeholders including policy experts, healthcare providers and formal and informal sector workers. We then triangulated the interview findings with document analysis.Results Only 17% of Kenya's population are currently covered by the SHI as of 2023. Only 27% of the informal economy is covered by the NHIF, implying very low uptake and/or retention rates. We found little stakeholder engagement in the policy implementation process and minimum adoption of expert advice. Our analysis suggest that political affiliations and positions of power heavily influence health financing policies in Kenya. Purchasing and payment of healthcare was found to be riddled with inefficiencies, including slow bureaucratic reimbursement procedures, little expertise by rural hospital clerks, misappropriations and favouritism of specific private healthcare providers. We also found that group-based parallel schemes and penalty payments for defaulted premiums widened the existing inequity gap in healthcare access.Conclusion Although the SHI system is perceived to increase coverage and the quality of health services in Kenya, substantial structural and contextual challenges appear to deter its suitability to finance the attainment of Universal Health Coverage. From Kenya's experience, we identify little informal sector participation, inefficiencies in purchasing and payment of healthcare services, as well lack of political goodwill, as key bottlenecks for the implementation of SHI schemes in LMICs. LMICs adopting SHI need to also implement co-financing arrangements that do not impose on the population to co-finance, strategic purchasing systems, political goodwill and good governance for the SHI systems to be beneficial.