Water scarcity in Hebei Province, China: A predictive model and analysis of contributing factors

Water scarcity is a critical issue in Hebei Province, China, intensified by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and population growth. This study analyzes key factors contributing to Hebei's water shortage and forecasts future trends to support sustainable resource management. Using Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) on 2015-2023 data from the Hebei Economic Yearbook and Hebei Water Resources Bulletin, nine variables-including GDP, precipitation, industrial water use, and population-were examined. Results indicate that GDP, temperature, industrial and tertiary water use, population, and total water consumption positively correlate with water scarcity, while precipitation and total water resources have a mitigating effect. The model demonstrates high predictive accuracy, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Squared Percentage Error (MSPE) below 5 %, validating its reliability. This study offers insights for policymakers, highlighting the need for targeted water management strategies to balance economic growth and resource sustainability. Future research should integrate additional factors, such as wastewater treatment, to enhance predictive precision.