Spatiotemporal dynamics and factors of renewable energy mismatch in China

The coordinated development of renewable energy production and consumption is essential for achieving multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDGs 7 (Affordable and clean energy) and 13 (Climate action). This research analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns of renewable energy production and the spatial distribution of consumption in China using a standard deviation ellipse model and a modified gravity model. Spatial mismatch and improved coupling coordination models assess the characteristics and trends of the mismatch, while spatial econometric models explore the driving factors. Results indicate that from 2015 to 2022, China exhibited specific spatial clustering in renewable energy production, with a shifting production center toward the southeast. Inter-provincial consumption connections strengthened, forming a multi-core cluster. There is a significant spatial mismatch between renewable energy production and consumption China, with positive misalignment in the northwest and northeast and negative misalignment in the east and south. Over time, the degree of mismatch has improved, establishing a new core-periphery pattern. The analysis of influencing factors reveals that the economic development promotes the coupling coordination degree in the west, whereas primary industry restricts it in the east. The government fiscal expenditure ratio exerts a stronger inhibitory effect in the east. Notably, wind power installations positively impact eastern coupling coordination degrees, while research and development intensity enhances coordination nationwide. This research provides new insights into renewable energy distribution and mismatch drivers, presenting actionable strategies for policymakers to align regional energy transitions with climate objectives and equity considerations.