Nomograms for predicting overall and cancer-specific survival among patients with prostatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a population-base study

BackgroundProstatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) is a rare malignant tumor, and research on its clinical features and prognosis is scarce. This study aims to develop prognostic nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with PDA.Research design and methodsAmong the 1,049 identified patients, an 8:2 random division yielded development and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors, which were then incorporated into nomograms predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS for patients with PDA. The prognostic nomograms were evaluated using Concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with internal validation performed through Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).ResultsIndependent prognostic factors, including age, marital status, lymph node status, distant metastasis, surgery method, chemotherapy, and Gleason score, were incorporated into the developed nomograms. The results of training (C-index: OS = 0.74, CSS = 0.69; AUC value: OS = 0.822-0.892, CSS = 0.836-0.873) and internal validation (C-index: OS = 0.78, CSS = 0.77) indicated our nomograms had good performance The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram had a good clinical net benefit.ConclusionsThis study successfully established and validated prognostic nomograms tailored for PDA patients.