The shifting dynamics of amity and enmity in the Middle East: analysing the 2023 Israel-Hamas war through the framework of regional security complex theory

In Middle Eastern regional politics, the Israel-Palestine conflict has been a key factor in shaping political dynamics. During the establishment of Israel, Arab countries, including the Gulf states, expressed support for the Palestinian cause, leading to the expansion of anti-Israel sentiment. However, following the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, the focus of hostility gradually shifted towards Iran. With the Arab Spring further amplifying Iran's influence, the Gulf states began to explore the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel as a new strategy for survival. This rapidly changing political landscape posed a crisis for Hamas, culminating in Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023. This study, based on Buzan's Regional Security Complex Theory, aims to examine how the changing perceptions of amity and enmity surrounding the Israel-Palestine conflict are reflected in the political attitudes of the Gulf states. The Gulf monarchies continue to consider the potential benefits of normalizing relations with Israel. However, given that hostility once again dominates public sentiment, these states are merely observing the situation. This conflict has confirmed that emotional factors, such as amity and enmity, still play a significant role in shaping the Middle Eastern regional security complex.