Mineral rents, renewable energy, and real growth nexus: evidence from top-rich countries in minerals across East-Central African regions

Several African countries, particularly those with substantial mineral deposits, are marked by low economic progress and unstable institutions. This study aims to explore the effects of mineral resource rents and renewable energy consumption on real economic growth across eight countries in the East and Central African regions. To achieve this, we employed linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL). The results demonstrate that mineral rents and renewable energy significantly and linearly promote real economic growth in certain countries. Nonlinear results indicate that positive shocks to mineral rents substantially drive growth in three countries, while negative shocks significantly hinder growth in one country. Similarly, both positive and negative shocks to renewable energy significantly influence real growth in one country, with positive shocks enhancing growth in three countries and negative shocks adversely affecting growth in one country. The effects of positive and negative shocks to labor and capital exhibit both asymmetric and symmetric impacts on real growth. Panel estimator results reveal that mineral rents, though not significant, have a positive relationship with real growth, whereas renewable energy significantly and positively contributes to real growth in both the short- and long-term. Based on these findings, the study proposes effective policy recommendations that consider the linear and nonlinear externalities on real economic growth.