Research on Multi-Scale Electricity-Carbon-Green Certificate Market Coupling Trading Based on System Dynamics

While tradable green certificates (TGCs) and carbon emission trading (CET) play key roles in achieving peak carbon and carbon neutrality, the coupling effects between these two policies on the medium- and long-term electricity market and the spot market are still uncertain. In this study, we firstly construct a multi-scale market trading framework to sort out the information transfer of four markets. Secondly, we establish a multi-scale market system dynamics-coupled trading model with five sub-modules, including the medium- and long-term power markets, the spot market, and the carbon market. Subsequently, we adjust the policy parameters (carbon quota benchmark price, carbon quota auction ratio, and renewable energy quota ratio) and set up five policy scenarios to compare and analyze the impacts of the CET and TGC mechanisms on the power market and carbon emission reduction when they act alone or in synergy, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the adjustment of strategies of market entities and the setting of parameters. The results show that CET can increase spot electricity prices and promote renewable energy to enter the spot market, while TGCs can promote a high proportion of renewable energy consumption but lower spot electricity prices for a long time. The coordinated implementation of the CET and TGC mechanisms can improve the power market's adaptability to high renewable energy penetration, but it may also result in policy redundancy.