Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

被引：4

作者：

Dietze, Michael ^{[1
]}

White, Ethan P. ^{[2
]}

Abeyta, Antoinette ^{[3
]}

Boettiger, Carl ^{[4
]}

Bueno Watts, Nievita ^{[5
]}

Carey, Cayelan C. ^{[6
]}

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca ^{[7
,8
]}

Emanuel, Ryan E. ^{[9
]}

Ernest, S. K. Morgan ^{[2
]}

Figueiredo, Renato J. ^{[10
]}

Gerst, Michael D. ^{[11
]}

Johnson, Leah R. ^{[12
]}

Kenney, Melissa A. ^{[8
]}

Mclachlan, Jason S. ^{[13
]}

Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch. ^{[14
]}

Peters, Jody A. ^{[13
]}

Rollinson, Christine R. ^{[15
]}

Simonis, Juniper ^{[16
]}

Sullivan-Wiley, Kira ^{[17
]}

Thomas, R. Quinn ^{[6
,18
]}

Wardle, Glenda M. ^{[19
]}

Willson, Alyssa M. ^{[13
]}

Zwart, Jacob ^{[20
]}

机构：

[1] Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA

[2] Univ Florida, Dept Wildlife Ecol & Conservat, Gainesville, FL USA

[3] Univ New Mexico Gallup, Math Phys & Nat Sci Div, Gallup, NM USA

[4] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA USA

[5] Cal Poly Humboldt, Indian Nat Resource Sci & Engn Program, Arcata, CA USA

[6] Virginia Tech, Dept Biol Sci, Blacksburg, VA USA

[7] WWF, Global Sci, San Francisco, CA USA

[8] Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm, St Paul, MN USA

[9] Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC USA

[10] Oregon State Univ, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Corvallis, OR USA

[11] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD USA

[12] Virginia Tech, Dept Stat, Blacksburg, VA USA

[13] Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Notre Dame, IN USA

[14] Boston Univ, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Boston, MA USA

[15] Morton Arboretum, Ctr Tree Sci, Lisle, IL USA

[16] Dapper Stats, Portland, OR USA

[17] Pew Charitable Trusts, Washington, DC USA

[18] Virginia Tech, Dept Forest Resources & Environm Conservat, Blacksburg, VA USA

[19] Univ Sydney, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[20] US Geol Survey, Water Mission Area, Madison, WI USA

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2024年 / 14卷 / 12期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

DISTRIBUTED EXPERIMENTS; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; SCIENCE; MODELS; COPRODUCTION; BIODIVERSITY; MANAGEMENT; FRAMEWORK; PROGRESS; SUPPORT;

D O I：

10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

引用

页码：1236 / 1244

页数：9