Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emission Regional Difference in China by Damping Fractional Grey Model

The emission of carbon dioxide is the main reason for many global warming problems. Although China has made tremendous efforts to reduce carbon emission, the space-time dynamics of the carbon emission trend is still imbalanced. To forecast CDED in China, the Dagum Gini coefficient was applied to measure regional CDED. Then, a grey correlation model was used to select potential influence factors and a wrapping method for selecting the optimal subset. DGMC is proposed to forecast CDED. The research results showed that the DGMC generalization performance is significantly superior to other models. The MAPE of DGMC in six cases are 1.18%, 1.11%, 0.66%, 1.13%, 1.27% and 0.51%, respectively. The RMSPEPR of DGMC in six cases are 1.08%, 1.21%, 0.97%, 1.36%, 1.41% and 0.57%, respectively. The RMSPEPO of DGMC in six cases are 1.29%, 0.69%, 0.02%, 0.58%, 0.78% and 0.32%, respectively. In future trends, the eastern carbon dioxide emission intraregional differences will decrease. Additionally, the intraregional differences in western and middle-region carbon dioxide emissions will expand. Interregional carbon emission difference will display a narrowing trend. Compared with the traditional grey model and ANN model, integrating the influence factor information significantly improved forecasting accuracy. The proposed model will present better balanced historical information and accurately forecast future trends. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed based on the research results.