Tree species composition governs urban phenological responses to warming

Urban environments are typically warmer than surrounding rural areas, providing a unique setting for studying phenological responses to climate warming. Phenological differences between urban and rural trees are driven by local climate and species composition. Yet, the extent to which species composition influences phenological responses to urbanization remains poorly understood. To address this, we combine manipulative experiments, satellite-derived phenology data, and georeferenced tree occurrence records. Our findings show that, across Northern Hemisphere cities, differences in the temperature sensitivity of spring phenology between urban and rural areas are largely driven by urban-rural variation in species composition, surpassing the effects of preseason temperature. This pattern is particularly pronounced in Asian cities, where urban areas exhibit 0.74 ± 0.24 days/°C higher temperature sensitivity than rural areas. In-depth analyses using experiments and high-resolution satellite imagery from Beijing further demonstrate species-specific phenological responses to urbanization, with urban-dominant species exhibiting higher temperature sensitivity in urban environments compared to rural ones. These findings show that both interspecific variation in temperature sensitivity and species-specific responses to urbanization contribute to the pronounced impact of species composition on urban-rural phenological patterns. Our study underscores the importance of considering species composition when studying phenological responses to climate warming, especially in urban contexts.