The role of Guru investor in Bitcoin: Evidence from Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

被引：0

作者：

Shen, Dehua ^{[1
]}

Wu, Yize ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Nankai Univ, Sch Finance, 38 Tongyan Rd, Tianjin 300350, Peoples R China

[2] Washington Univ St Louis, Olin Sch Business, St Louis, MO 63130 USA

来源：

RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE | 2025年 / 75卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Twitter; Bitcoin; Guru investor; KAN; Investor sentiment; OPINION LEADERS; CROSS-SECTION; SENTIMENT; RETURNS; PREDICT; MARKET; PRICE; RECOMMENDATIONS; INEFFICIENCY; PORTFOLIO;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.102789

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

This study examines the influence of Twitter sentiment on Bitcoin price movements by distinguishing between "Gurus" (influential users) and regular users in the Bitcoin market. We analyze over 26 million Tweets collected from September 2006 to March 2023 to derive sentiment data, then employ Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) to compare the predictive effectiveness of follower-weighted sentiment versus unweighted sentiment. Our results indicate that follower-weighted sentiment significantly enhances prediction accuracy, with Guru sentiments consistently showing stronger predictive power than regular user sentiment. These findings are robust to alternative measurement of sentiment, alternative definition of Guru investor, and subperiod analysis.

引用

页数：18

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