Uneven transitions and disparate mobility patterns for South Africa's electric paratransit

The electrification of sub-Saharan Africa's paratransit industry is mainly seen in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals around climate action, clean energy, health, and sustainability. However, a vital objective of the transitions is a "just energy transition"through equal access for all in the transition to a low-carbon economy. The transition to electric paratransit may have unintentional and adverse implications on equality for different groupings, an aspect not considered before. This paper evaluates the viability of the transition for two distinct groupings in South Africa's paratransit sector from the same town. We used two datasets from Stellenbosch, South Africa, and its surrounding areas, with the two groups identified based on home location. Group A comprises lower-middle-income communities, while Group B comprises impoverished communities. We found differences in mobility patterns and driving efficiencies, with Group A having a higher electrification viability rate of 82% compared to Group B's 32%. The transition will not be equal for these two groups. Electrification of the paratransit industry needs sufficient policies and incentives to ensure a just transition for all. Moreover, policymakers and infrastructure planners need to take special care in considering representative mobility data sources to ensure the representation of all groupings' mobility in the data.