Will regular COVID-19 control measures impact the spatial distribution of two-wheeled vehicle theft?: A case study of NH city, China

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted daily routines and crime dynamics. While a substantial body of research has examined the effects of pandemic-related restrictions on crime, the impact of regular COVID-19 control measures on the occurrence and spatial distribution of criminal incidents in areas unaffected by largescale COVID-19 outbreaks remains unexplored. Focusing on NH city, China, the present study applies spatial point pattern test (SPPT) and multinomial logistic regression to investigate changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of two-wheeled vehicle thefts, including e-bikes, normal bikes, and motorcycles, as well as the environmental factors leading to these changes. The findings are as follows: (1) Two-wheeled vehicle thefts fall drastically at the onset of COVID-19 and then maintain at a low level with slight fluctuations throughout the period of restriction orders. Monthly speaking, the spatial patterns of two-wheeled vehicle theft show periodicity in both pre-pandemic and pandemic contexts. Furthermore, on the daily basis, the spatial patterns of twowheeled vehicle theft align closely with commuting behaviors in both periods. (2) SPPT results indicate that a significant alteration in the spatial patterns of overall two-wheeled vehicle theft and e-bike theft during the pandemic. Although the entire study area witnesses a notable decrease in both types of thefts, certain spatial units experience a marked increase. (3) The present study further compares the spatial factors influencing twowheeled vehicle thefts across the two periods. During the pandemic, areas with social organizations, government agencies, parks and squares witness a significant reduction in two-wheeled vehicle thefts, whereas areas with dense tutoring institutions and residential areas with a high density of male residents aged 20-49 experience a significant uptick in theft incidents. The present study provides insights into the impacts of regular COVID-19 control measures, an approach to social management, on the spatial patterns of crime. The findings may inform strategies for optimizing crime prevention efforts and the allocation of local police resources.