The (Un)Intended consequences of power: The global implications of EU LNG strategy to reach independence from Russian gas

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU-Russia gas interdependency has been shaken to the core. EU authorities have implemented a strategy to phase-out the gas dependency from Russia importing massive amounts of LNG. Main strategic goals have been to secure energy supplies at affordable prices, safeguarding the common market. However, results have been rather ambiguous, and the EU has been paying heavy costs, with the LNG diversification strategy countering core values and principles shaping the EU energy policymaking. Drawing on the Baldwin notion of power as a relational and multidimensional concept and the taxonomy of power developed by Barnett and Duvall, the article challenges traditional conceptualisations of power, providing a nuanced theoretical approach to the study of energy interdependencies and an innovative understanding of the nexus between international relations and energy studies. The research delves into the intended and unintended consequences of power dynamics in the EU-Russia gas interdependence, as much as the nature of the EU power at each stage of the complex gas independence with Russia. The paper focuses on the EU ability to wean off its Russian gas dependence while preserving informal institutions shaping the identity of its energy policymaking. The investigation shows the powerlessness of the EU and the distance existing between intended and actual outcomes of the LNG strategy, with some major implications for the same EU-Russia relationship. Against the background of emerging LNG interdependencies and a rising global energy order, the article presents policy recommendations to reduce the gap between expected and actual policy outcomes.