Electoral Gap and the Opportunity for Democratic Decline in Post-Communist Europe

This study investigates the electoral dimension of democratic backsliding by conceptualizing the "electoral gap"-the vote share differential between the leading and runner-up candidates. Through the analysis of electoral data from 37 countries spanning the period 1990 to 2022, we identify a significant and consistent pattern: the magnitude of electoral victories exerts a profound influence on the integrity of democratic institutions. Specifically, large-margin victories are found to be strongly associated with the erosion of democratic norms, as measured by the V-Dem index, whereas narrower victories appear to serve as a counterforce, limiting the scope of anti-democratic actions.