The effect of climate change on meteorological drought and hydrological drought assessment in Kohgilouye and Boyer Ahmad Province of Iran

Drought is a persistent environmental challenge with widespread and long-term impacts. Understanding the effects of climate change on drought is crucial for sustainable water resource management. This study assesses future drought conditions in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province from 2024 to 2047 using the HADGEM3-GC31-LL model under SSP1.2-6 and SSP5.8-5 scenarios. Various drought indices, including standardized precipitation index, reconnaissance drought index, effective reconnaissance drought index (meteorological), standardized streamflow index (SSI) (hydrological), and groundwater resource index (groundwater), were applied to analyze precipitation, temperature, surface water discharge, and groundwater levels. Contrary to many studies predicting a decline in rainfall, our findings indicate an increase in precipitation and a slight decrease in temperature. The drought indices suggest that future conditions in the region will remain stable, with no significant intensification or mitigation of drought. These insights contribute to regional water management strategies by providing a refined understanding of climate-induced drought variability.