Opposite effects of climate and land-use/cover change on Mediterranean herpetofauna: Insights from the southern Apennines

Climate change and natural land conversion are causing dramatic shifts in species distribution. Amphibians and reptiles, ectothermic animals with limited dispersal ability, and Mediterranean mountain ranges, which are home to numerous locally adapted taxa, are especially vulnerable to these threats. This is the case with Cilento, a highly biodiverse yet under-investigated area in the southern Apennine Mountains that is protected by a National Park and 30 Natura 2000 sites. We used bias-corrected species distribution models and area of habitat (AOH) maps to assess the potential combined impact of climate and land-use change on 11 amphibians and 16 reptiles in the Park and overlapping Natura 2000 sites. The former estimates species climatic suitability (CS) by correlating species presence to climatic characteristics, whereas the latter classifies the land-use types based on species-habitat relationships. We estimated CS and AOH for current conditions and two climate and land-use/cover change scenarios: one of sustainability (SSP1-2.6) and one of fossil-fueled development (SSP5-8.5). Under both scenarios, most species showed significant CS loss, with the greatest declines estimated for amphibians and under SSP5-8.5. Highland species appear to be the most vulnerable, whereas lowland species may gain CS. Given the widespread renaturalization of agricultural land under both scenarios, most species did not show declines in AOH due to land-use change. However, all species were projected to face significant shifts in CS under both scenarios, presenting a crucial challenge to their survival. These findings offer valuable insights for climate mitigation initiatives aimed at securing the long-term protection of herpetofauna within Cilento's protected areas.