On Earthquake Prediction, the Relationship between Seismic and Geodynamic Processes, and the Concept of Information Certainty

被引：0

作者：

A. V. Solomatin ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, bulvar Piipa 9, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky

来源：

Journal of Volcanology and Seismology | 2025年 / 19卷 / 1期

关键词：

earthquake prediction; fuzzy estimates; geodynamic model; information certainty; seismic monitoring; spectrum of seismic process; subduction zone;

D O I：

10.1134/S0742046324700878

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Abstract: We are considering in a general form several problems that have to be dealt with in prediction of great earthquakes, which pose the greatest hazard. The most important of these problems include the following: the efficiency of earthquake prediction based on the concept of scenarios, which represent the basic patterns in the evolution of the source zones generating great earthquakes; monitoring the development of such scenarios on the basis of seismological data; modeling the relationship between seismic and geodynamic processes that control the scenarios. We suggest for dealing with the last two problems to use concepts of energy and dynamic spectra of seismic activity in the geomedium, while the solution we propose has a certain peculiarity, namely, introduction of a mathematical concept of information certainty. An example in the use of proposed procedures as set forth in this paper consists in a substantiation of the hypothetical multiyear oscillating movement as the oceanic plate is subducted in the Kamchatka subduction zone at a period of about 8.57 years. It is supposed that such oscillations essentially control the most likely periods in the occurrence of regional great earthquakes. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2025.

引用

页码：67 / 77

页数：10

共 32 条

[1] Aki K., Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a – bM and its confidence limits, Bull. Earthq. Res. Ins, 43, pp. 237-239, (1965)
[2] Baranov S.V., Gvishiani A.D., Narteau C., Shebalin P.N., Epidemic type aftershock sequence exponential productivity, Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 19, (2019)
[3] Fedotov S.A., On patterns observed in the locations of large earthquakes in Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands, and northeast Japan, Trudy IFZ AN SSSR, 36, pp. 66-93, (1965)
[4] Fedotov S.A., On the seismic cycle, possibilities of quantitative seismic zonation, and long-term earthquake prediction, Seismicheskoe raionirovanie SSSR (Seismic Zonation of the USSR), pp. 121-150, (1968)
[5] Fedotov S.A., Energeticheskaya klassifikatsiya Kurilo-Kamchatskikh zemletryasenii i problema magnitud (The Energy Classification of Earthquakes and the Magnitude Problem), (1972)
[6] Fedotov S.A., Dolgosrochnyi seismicheskii prognoz dlya Kurilo-Kamchatskoi dugi (Long-term Earthquake Prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka Arc), (2005)
[7] Fedotov S.A., Chernyshev S.D., Twenty Years of Long–Term Seismic Prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc: Reliability in 1981–1985, 1965–1985 and Prediction for 1986–1992, Seismol. Vulkanol., 1987, no. 6, pp. 93–109 [Volcanology and Seismology, Gordon and Breach, cover-to-cover, translation, 9, 6, pp. 956-981, (1990)
[8] Fedotov S.A., Solomatin A.V., The long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the September 2013 to August 2018 period
[9] The seismicity of the arc during preceding deep-focus earthquakes in the Sea of Okhotsk (in 2008, 2012, and 2013 at M = 7.7, 7.7, and 8.3), J. Volcanol. Seismol, 9, pp. 65-80, (2015)
[10] Fedotov S.A., Solomatin A.V., The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period, its modification and application

← 1 2 3 4 →