Risk Management Model of Urban Resilience Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is inevitable and intensifying. The consequences are particularly severe for urban areas, which are becoming increasingly populated. This has resulted in the necessity to analyze the effects of climate change on the functioning of urban areas and build and plan strategies for strengthening the resilience of cities and their infrastructures and for predicting climate change and the threats associated with it. This study proposes a multi-criteria model for analyzing and assessing the risk arising from climate change to urban areas by determining the probability of the occurrence of various threats and their potential consequences for urbanization. The model takes into account the exposure and vulnerability of assets, systems, infrastructure, and communities to the significant consequences of climate change and the occurrence of hazardous events. Bayesian probability theory was proposed to predict the probability of hazardous event occurrence, taking into account climate change and the statistical uncertainty in estimating extreme hazard impacts. The proposed model allows us to include vulnerability drivers and resilience factors and their effect on the functioning of a city and its critical infrastructures and, consequently, the lives and well-being of residents. The model can be applied to risk management and planning strategies for urban resilience strengthening.