What are the determinants of renewable energy consumption? An application for variable selection

This study aims to determine the factors influencing renewable energy in Turkiye. Three different variables are considered as indicators of renewable energy: renewable energy consumption, renewable energy production, and the share of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption. A set of macroeconomic, socioeconomic, and energy-based variables considered as potential influencing factors for these indicators are treated as candidate independent variables. Three different models created with these candidate variables are estimated using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Random Forest (RF) methods. Additionally, the study investigates which variables are the most significant determinants of the considered indicators. The results indicate that social development and education play a critical role in driving renewable energy consumption. For renewable energy production, labor force and oil consumption are also found to be important, suggesting that energy transition requires not only technological investments but also policies targeting human resources and fossil fuel management. Finally, the findings show that greenhouse gas emissions are a key factor in increasing the share of renewables in total energy consumption, highlighting the importance of emission reduction policies in Turkiye's energy transition.